A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Overbalancing

Abstract Why do states overestimate threats and, as a result, mount disproportionately strong and therefore costly balancing responses? To answer this question, we build neoclassical realist theory of overbalancing to argue that unit-level intervening variables help generate counterforce greater than what structurally induced ideal response would call for. We identify the factors conditions steer deviate from realist, optimal policies, pinpoint consequences such suboptimal behavior, provide policymakers with recommendations more suited an interest-driven foreign policy in line power considerations. apply our two distinct case studies: Egypt's intervention Yemen 1960s American overreaction real, but very limited, threat posed by terrorism since 2001.